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ESL milk panel: Innovation? Market optimizers?

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Dairy checkoff: ‘If we focus on whole milk, we miss these market optimizers’ Really?
At the 2025 Pennsylvania Dairy Summit, Paul Ziemnisky, DMI’s head of wellness, innovation, and business development, and Rebecca Pfeffer, Maola brand manager, with moderator Amy Mearkle (left) spoke about fluid milk innovation in which extended shelf life (ESL), otherwise known as ultra pasteurized (UP) milk, is seen as the gateway to new products aiming to meet ‘functional needs’ of consumers.

By Sherry Bunting, Farmshine, March, 2025

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. – Food-as-medicine, food-and-medicine, fun-and-portable, young kids talking about pre-aging, on-the-go snack and beverage convenience, the quest for guilt-free ways to unwind with fewer calories than wine, the growing double-income-no-kids (DINK) consumer landscape that is focused on wellness, consumer shifts from coffees to teas, the surge in protein demand, and the growth in sales of lactose-free milk… 

These are some emerging trends mentioned during a panel about extended shelf life (ESL) milk as the gateway to dairy checkoff’s Milk Molecules Initiative during the Pennsylvania Dairy Summit last month.

In the Feb. 21st Farmshine, we brought you part one, a panel overview in this three-part series. In this second installment, we dig into what Dairy Management Inc (DMI) is doing with protein in the fluid milk space, and the technologies they are working on to separate molecules.

This public launch of the Milk Molecules Initiative (MMI) comes after 10 to 15 years of work through the pre-competitive industry collaboration vehicle – The Innovation Center for U.S. Dairy, a 501c6 established by DMI in 2008.

What we’ve learned is that MMI — as a fluid milk strategy — began even before the formation of DMI’s Fluid Milk Innovation Task Force seven years ago. It goes all the way back to 2010, right about the time whole milk choice was abolished in schools.

This strategy has been developed to discover, strip out, and repurpose the “functional benefits” of specific bioactive compounds, or molecules, in milk. The concept goes back to the early alliance between Fonterra and DMI, with headquarters less than three miles apart in the suburbs of Chicago around O’Hare Airport.

This strategy has been under development via research grants from USDA, NIH, and the National Dairy Council to the Dairy Research Institutes at four university locations, including the Barile Lab at the University of California-Davis. There, researchers have worked on isolating compounds from both human and bovine milk, and more recently, student researchers have been working on a DMI project “building a digital ecosystem and platform for these milk compounds.”

The Feb. 2022 memorandum of understanding between DMI and Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, is tying-in the human health linkages to specific bioactive compounds in milk, and the Feb. 2024 DMI partnership with PIPA, an artificial intelligence (AI) platform, is accelerating the knowledge gain in how to break down milk’s so-called “bioactive family tree” to leverage functional milk products with new health benefits.

“We are finding the molecules in the whole milk matrix and picking things that are on the ‘whey stream’ as one area of focus, such as stripping out the lactorferrin,’” said Dairy Summit panelist Paul Ziemnisky, head of wellness, innovation and business development for Dairy Management Inc. (DMI), who has spearheaded the work of the Fluid Milk Innovation Task Force.

“We have partners talking about building a lactoferrin plant centered on just one of thousands of molecules in milk. We are looking at how to protect this molecule so it doesn’t lose its bioavailability, so we can put it back into dairy (post-processing),” he said.

Ziemnisky observed how past checkoff messaging has touted things like: “chocolate milk as a recovery beverage.”

Today, he said, “We’re going beyond that. We’re looking at ways to add milk to milk and to use these concepts to give it a different look and to capture huge value potential.”

How does DMI plan to partner with industry to capture this value? By linking milk and technology to create new products.

According to Ziemnisky, the MMI is looking aggressively at encapsulation and separation technologies as well as drying technologies that can be patented while testing the concepts with consumers to “learn how to talk about it.”

“If we focus on whole milk, we miss these market optimizers,” Ziemnisky declared. “Whole milk is for the 17% of traditionalists. We must innovate this category. We’re giving consumers a reason to understand what they need.”

He says MMI and ESL are pathways to get “milk” into more top-demand moments to capture a larger share of the $159 billion total beverage category.

(More ultra processed beverages are just what global consumer packaged goods companies are famous for. But is this what consumers really want? And will the ‘huge value potential’ trickle down to farm milk checks?)

According to Ziemnisky, there is at least $2 billion in new investment coming into the beverage space across geographies. “But it’s not your father’s Oldsmobile. Those new plants are filtration and separation, and we can add functionality to it.

“There are things we know of that we can’t even talk about yet,” he said as he gave a snapshot of where MMI is, and what is yet to come.

He cited a proliferation of ESL milk beverages that are mainly lactose-free, high protein milks as the gateway to molecular separation. Examples included the ESL capabilities at the Maola plant in Philadelphia, the national launch of Milk50 by DFA, the new nutrition line of beverages developed by Dairy Gold, Nestle’s new line made exclusively for Target, and others.

Asked if these new products are taking sales away from non-milk alternatives or traditionally branded milk, Ziemnisky said DMI’s work with MilkPEP shows that the plant-based beverages – on a volume and value basis – are “over-shelved.”

“They haven’t grown their category, their volume is declining. Those guys are eating themselves — going after each other. They’re not going after us anymore because they can’t. We win with nutrition and value. When we see all the innovation that is coming into dairy, we’re taking our space back by meeting the functional needs of the consumer. The quality of the protein is in demand now,” he said, confirming data showing that, “People are coming back to us because of the nutrition and the quality of the protein.”

During questions, he dug into the health and wellness “playbook” that checkoff has created with the help and blessing of USDA and has put into the hands of the top people at all of the big companies in food processing and retailing. 

“We’ve traditionally undersold our nutritional benefits, and that’s changing,” he said.

Where MMI comes into the picture is to identify the bioactive molecules for separation and marketing linked to specific health claims that can go on a label.

A graduate student in the audience said the presentation gave her “a lot of hope in the future as a scientist.” She asked if DMI has noticed any difference in regional trends related to consumers, and specifically wondered what is happening in California?

Ziemnisky said California was moving the other direction. “They like to try things out there,” he said, explaining that the dairy industry is so volume- and scale-focused that pilot products are not the norm. 

“California is coming back. California has assets that do smaller runs to try things. Last year, California grew (beverage milk sales) at a faster pace, whereas the Northeast market is so heavily regulated,” he said, adding that government regulation puts pressure on local retailers who want to try things.

DMI’s role is to test and learn, he explained: “We help processors prove these markets to retailers. Value-add is 30% of the dollars in the fluid milk category today. We went to 30% from just 10% just 10 years ago. We are targeting both volume and value with our retail and direct sales teams.”

One attendee asked what checkoff can do about the out-of-stock issues at retail, noting that perhaps fluid milk sales would increase if the dairy cases were consistently well-stocked.

“When we ask the store people, they say we don’t do the orders, it all comes from above us,” the questioner said.

Ziemnisky replied: “They are not telling you the truth. The real out of stock rate nationally is 3%. The problem is they are not managing their inventory. The inventory is there, but not the labor.”

“What we run into is the problem is store help,” said John Chrisman of ADANE, jumping into the conversation, noting new laser-system camera technologies are coming within the next five years to issue alerts about what is “flying off the shelves.”

In the meantime, he told attendees to report out-of-stocks to ADANE so they can get it resolved.

Another question asked was how farmers can feed or manage their herds to hit higher levels of functional bioactives like lactoferrin.

Ziemnisky said that’s a question for the milk buyers’ field service personnel, but in general, feeding cattle to hit higher component levels will raise the functional level of milk molecules like lactoferrin.

This reporter asked Ziemnisky what DMI is doing to know if there is any change in the protein structure with the further processed options: “How are we protecting that message on whey protein by protecting its structure through the ultra pasteurization process?”

(The only published research we could find was an NIH study showing heat and mechanical processes of ESL packaging change the structure of the protein, namely the whey protein.)

Ziemnisky replied that DMI is “doing significant work” on the nutrition research side to prove the efficacy of dairy’s high quality protein vs. other proteins. 

“And on the product science side, we’re investing significantly in everything from the clarity of protein, so you can put it into other products, to the quality as it goes through different processes that it stays stabilized. We work with the industry on what are the needs we can solve,” he assured.

On follow up questioning about protecting the protein, he added that, “Encapsulation is just one technology we’re doing to preserve the bioactive pull, and we have other things underway as well. We also look at the byproducts. What do we do with lactose coming through on the lactose-free? What do we do with the permeates on the cheese, the passive whey? These are where we’re doing work to create products from the bioplastics all the way to the functional ingredients.”

Bottom line, he said: “Whey was the bastard child, and now it is the largest gaining market share because of demand for high quality proteins. We are seeing the fractionation piece of this, the precision nutrition, the new players coming in and doing research on different compounds, driving whey to where it is today vs. 20 years ago.”

With an estimated 6300 molecules in milk identified by artificial intelligence, all located within the 13% of milk that is the solids, Ziemnisky expressed excitement about the future.

“We are at the cusp of this, and with our artificial intelligence partnerships, we are getting the learnings in 2 to 3 years that used to take 10 years,” he suggested. “This is moving fast toward a sustainable future with zero-waste circular milk plants.” 

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Editorial: Get it done or start ‘splainin’

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By Sherry Bunting, Editorial in Farmshine May 30, 2025

While the landmark MAHA Commission was working on its initial report released May 22 on the chronic childhood disease crisis, Pennsylvania state lawmakers have been assembling a “Healthy PA Package” that includes five bills – H.B. 1130, 1131, 1132, 1133, and 1134 – that would either ban or require specific labeling for foods containing certain artificial dyes and preservatives; provide statutory definitions for terms like “ultra-processed foods,” designate August as Wellness Month, and provide incentives for cover crops based on their use in producing healthier crops using less chemical herbicide…

But there is one state bill that should be part of this Healthy PA Package, and that is S.B. 463, the “Allowing Whole Milk in PA Schools Act,” reintroduced in March by State Senator Michele Brooks, a Republican representing Mercer County. It would simply allow Pennsylvania schools to purchase and serve whole and 2% milk produced within the state instead of being limited to offering only 1% and fat-free milk.

After all, the MAHA Report describes whole milk as “a rich source of calcium, vitamin D and bioactive fatty acids, which support bone health, help regulate inflammation and may reduce the risk of type two diabetes.” And the MAHA Report could reform some key elements of the anti-fat Dietary Guidelines. But it was lawmakers in Washington in 2010 that specifically singled out whole and 2% milk in a passage within the Healthy Hunger Free Kids Act and states are left to bow down to King Vilsack, who drove the school bus on that deal.

In the previous session of the Pennsylvania State Senate, Sen. Brooks’ bill on whole milk had been reported out of the State Senate Ag Committee but never made it to the Senate floor for a vote. In the House, Rep. John Lawrence’s companion bill was passed by the full House last session, but was never approved by the Senate before the legislative session ended in Dec. 2024. At that time, there were murmurings of USDA canceling state school lunch reimbursements or other state funds from mighty USDA after a certain general farming publication mentioned the stance of Vilsack’s USDA in terms of the legality or illegality of such a state measure. 

Meanwhile, Tennessee and North Dakota have passed state legislation to pave a path for whole milk in their schools. If more states did this, even if it is tough to implement, it sends a message, and perhaps the leadership log-jam in Washington would break down and run the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act and get-it-done already. It appears to have broad bipartisan support, at least that’s what all of the lawmakers seem to want to portray in front of the cameras.

So, here we are in the 2025-26 legislative session at the state and federal levels having to start all over again, covering the same ground, talking the same talk, pointing out the same points that have been discussed, written about and testified to numerous times over the past 10-plus years.

“The (federal) Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010 put restrictive regulations on the consumption of whole milk in schools. In the first two years this legislation was enacted, 1.2 million fewer students drank milk with their lunch, yet still had access to sugary drinks that offer no nutritional value. This not only has terrible health and nutrition impacts on children, but major economic impacts, especially in Pennsylvania,” writes Sen. Brooks in her memo to colleagues seeking cosponsors for reintroduction.
 
In her memo, she cites testimony from a Senate Majority Policy Committee public hearing in June of 2021, in which the Grassroots Pennsylvania Dairy Advisory Committee volunteers and 97 Milk supporters testified, along with other industry leaders and officials.

She cites dairy’s economic importance to the Commonwealth, and the testimony showing the improved physical and brain health that whole milk’s unique matrix of fatty acids provides, noting “this fat is necessary in the daily diet and energy to support cell growth. Other health benefits of milk include improved bone health, lower blood pressure, and reduced risk of cardiovascular disease and Type 2 diabetes.”

Again, here we are with words upon words but no one’s running the votes upon votes to get it done.

Let’s stop talking and just do it. Lawmakers in Harrisburg and Washington can talk until they are blue in the face about doing something for dairy farmers or doing something to feed hungry children or deliver better childhood health and nutrition. They can come up with all kinds of elaborate schemes to make factions happy or align the stars on the curious realities of milky politics.

My message to folks at both Capitols is simple: We live in the United States of America — land of the free and home of the brave, where our valiant soldiers have fought and died to give and maintain our liberty – yet their children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren, and great-great grandchildren are prohibited from choosing whole milk as an option with school meals they rely on two meals a day, five days a week, three-quarters of the year. Heck, even our soldiers are limited because mess halls have to subscribe to those low-fat dogmas as well. 

One of the biggest obstacles for this bill early on was that most Americans laugh in disbelief when you tell them this. Absurd! They say. My kids have milk at their school, they laugh. And the federal government pays for all that milk to go straight into the trash… Oh, tell me more.

Can I be frank? My husband hears me talk on the phone about whole milk in schools and he laughs at the absurdity that I’m still talking and nothing has been accomplished. I am just one of many. As more voters see the absurdity, respect for elected officials wanes. I find it absurd that we are still talking about something that should have been finished long ago already. If we can’t do the simple stuff that has obvious bipartisan support, how in the world are we ever going to do the tough stuff? What’s the hold up? Is it industry? Is it leadership? Is it lip-service? Is it PETA? Is it Vegans? Is it the brainwashing game of the Heart Association as a pawn of Big Food and Big Pharma? What gives?

After 10-plus years, farmers, children, parents, teachers, school boards, and communities that have worked on this issue deserve an answer. Fess up to the real reason it’s still stymied or VOTE for goodness sakes – VOTE in both chambers – now—so these federal and state whole milk bills can get to the President’s and Governor’s desk in time for schools to actually put it in their food plans for the next school year. Time is running out. And the delays are now tiresome.

If these chambers aren’t going to vote, then they better tell us what the real holdup is and start naming names. Some of us have children and grandchildren who are anxiously waiting and hoping. Some of us have cows that are offended to know their nature’s most perfect food can’t be offered to children without being fooled around with. And some owners of those cows need to have hope that the hard work they do to provide high quality whole milk is reflected in what America’s children get to choose at school where they spend most of their time and eat two meals a day, five days a week, three-quarters of the year.

Get it done, or start ‘splainin.’

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Senate Ag hearing overwhelmingly endorses whole milk in schools

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By Sherry Bunting, Farmshine, April 4, 2025

WASHINGTON, D.C. – We need to be the change-makers that our students and farmers both need. We need to bring back the ability to offer milk fat choice in schools, including nutrient dense whole milk – which, by the way, is just 3.25 to 3.5% fat,” said Krista Byler, a witnesses during the hearing by the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Forestry, and Nutrition to “review the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, S. 222, and improve children’s health.”

April 1st, the day of the hearing, was a great day for America’s children and dairy farmers, and that’s no April Fools joke!

The livestreamed hearing opened with a reminder from Senate Ag Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) that the whole milk bill had passed the House in the last Congress “by an impressive 330 to 99 vote” and his desire to “make progress in the Senate.” 

Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) expressed her support for the bill and thanked Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) for introducing it. She also set the stage to broaden the hearing to other school nutrition matters. (To be covered in a separate article at another time).

The hearing ended with universal expressions of bipartisan support, thanking the Senate’s ‘milkman’ Marshall. Several Senators urged moving the bill forward as a standalone without delay.

“If we can do something that’s good, let’s do it, and then we’ll do the next thing that’s good,” said Senator Peter Welch (D-Vt.), the bill’s prime cosponsor, addressing the Chair. “This committee has an opportunity to help the Senate be a better Senate, we can take a bill like this that we agree on and move it before we get a full farm bill. It doesn’t matter what our politics are, we all care about our kids. I hope as we pursue this whole milk opportunity for our kids and our farmers that it’s the beginning of a real commitment to nutritious, locally produced, natural foods.”

In between the open and close, the Senate Ag Committee heard from and questioned five witnesses, spending the first chunk of time with Dr. Eve Stoody, Director of the Nutrition Guidance and Analysis Division at the Center for Nutrition Policy, within the Food Nutrition Service of the USDA. 

She is tasked with supporting the development of the Dietary Guidelines (DGA) since the 2010 edition and is the self-described career subject matter expert on the DGA process.

She revealed that 90% of Americans don’t consume the daily recommended amount of dairy, a statistic that has worsened over time, setting the stage for nutrient shortfalls.

“Across the board… whatever the form is, we need to have greater consumption of dairy,” she said, citing national survey data showing that on any given day, the percentage of adolescents reporting drinking milk was 75% in the 1970s, just under 50% in the early 2000s, and about 35% in the most recent data.

Chairman Boozman asked what justification was used to remove whole and 2% milk from schools in 2010?

Instead of addressing that question, specifically, Dr. Stoody said the current Dietary Guidelines recommend “most” dairy be low-fat or fat-free, but the guidelines (10 years later) in 2020 were constructed as overall dietary patterns with more flexibility.

“It’s also a reality that we kind of have a number of calories that individuals should consume, so across the guidelines we recommend consuming foods from all of those different food groups and that most should have little to no added sugars or saturated fat to help us stay within those calorie limits,” she said. “We don’t have a lot of room in the calories of the diet to consume milk and dairy with higher fat.”

Stoody parsed this as a population-level guideline: “That doesn’t mean whole milk and higher fat dairy can’t be part of a healthy diet, but it’s really important to look at the overall diet. The DGAs are there to provide flexibility based on needs and preferences.”

(This confusing ambiguity opened the door for the next panel to walk through, even though only two of the remaining four witnesses talked about the whole milk bill, while the other two talked exclusively about USDA’s recent cuts to programs like the local farm-to-school cooperative grants and concern about changes to how school lunch eligibility. Even those witnesses agreed that simplifying regulations and providing flexibility allows schools to focus on the quality of the meals instead of being bogged down by red tape.)

“I’m here because this issue matters to the children I serve, so it matters to me,” said witness Dr. Keith Ayoob, Associate Professor of Pediatric Nutrition at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York City. He runs a diagnostic and treatment clinic working with mostly low-income children, and their families, in the Bronx.

“A plethora of research demonstrates consumption of cow’s milk provides children with better bone health, a lower risk of type II diabetes, and a lower risk for cardiovascular disease,” he shared, as he zeroed-in on milk’s 13 essential nutrients, including 3 of the 4 under consumed nutrients calcium, potassium and Vitamin D.

He said saturated fat does not occur in foods in isolation, and new research shows the protein-fat matrix “behaves differently” in the body. “While other foods that are lower in saturated fat can also lower cardiometabolic risk, they can’t deliver the 13 essential nutrients in milk. Milk delivers a package I’ve not been able to find in any other food or beverage.”

Krista Byler of Spartansburg, Pennsylvania testified next. She is the Foodservice Director and District Chef for the past 20 years at Union City Area School District, or as she puts it: “The professional chef turned lunch lady.”

The granddaughter and wife of former dairy farmers, she was the one witness to bring a combined experience in dairy farming, culinary arts, and childhood nutrition, saying she believes “access to good quality nutrient dense whole food is a basic right of education.”

Byler spoke from the heart, bringing experience and data. She described the impact of the 2010 Childhood Nutrition Reauthorization’s school milk changes on students and dairy farm families.

“It was heartbreaking… we were seeing a huge increase in waste and a huge decline in the amount of milk that I was actually ordering because our children were not choosing to take the milk,” she said.

In 2018, Byler attended an event with the School Nutrition Association where she met Rep. Glenn ‘GT’ Thompson (R-Pa.) – the decade-long champion for The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act. 

At that meeting, Byler said she heard her peers also talking about the large amounts of waste. She was later introduced to the Grassroots Pennsylvania Dairy Advisory Committee of dairy farmers and school-involved parents, affiliated with what later became the separate milk education nonprofit 97 Milk.

(The Grassroots PA Dairy Advisory Committee is chaired by Bernie Morrissey, with current participants that include dairy farmers Nelson Troutman of Berks County (the Milk Baleboard painter), along with Dale Hoffman and Tricia Adams of Potter County, certified RN school nurse Christine Ebersole of Blair County, Dr. Ed Silverman, a retired internal medicine physician, Mike Sensenig of Sensenig’s Feed Mill, and this reporter who helps in communication. Like the separate board comprising 97 Milk, all the work is done by volunteers without compensation.)

This grassroots committee invited Byler to do some data collection. She explained that in the 2019-20 school year, with the blessing of her school board of directors, they conducted a school milk choice trial at the middle and high school, offering all levels of milkfat, both flavored and unflavored.

“The results are astounding.” Byler said, referencing her written testimony to find more complete data and survey results.

“What I want to really drive home are two main data points: The 50% increase in milk consumption (evidenced by ordering more milk) and the 95% — that’s right – the 95% reduction in milk waste, just because we offered a variety of milk choices that fit our students’ needs,” she said to the visibly astonished Senators who had previously unsuccessfully asked the first witness from USDA for such data.

“That’s incredible. It’s amazing when we give a little education and we give the choices, eventually the consumer makes the right choice,” said Sen. Marshall who is a medical doctor and prime sponsor of the bill in the Senate. He described his frustration in seeing the impact of osteoporosis and osteopenia, when bone density has not been built in the first 26 to 28 years of life.

Byler explained that the school student council helped collect, measure, and document the waste, and they “took a little heat after the 2020 school year when we (ended the trial) and went back to not being able to offer the variety. Overwhelmingly, students said they want something that is satisfying. Athletes, especially, were very vocal about wanting something that sticks with them. It’s a perfect recovery drink.”

Dr. Ayoob agreed: “My kids in my clinic have said that they find skim milk ‘watery.’ They may take that carton of milk. The school will get reimbursed. But I’m concerned that they drain that carton, not just take a few sips. Not only is there less food waste but more nutrition goes into the children.”

Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Calif.) reminisced that he didn’t grow up with much money in the bank, but was blessed to have a dairy down the street. “Today when I get a carton of milk at the store, my habit is still to shake it because growing up that cream rose to the top, and we knew we had to shake it if we were going to enjoy it.”

“Our kids want to do better. They want to eat better. We have their attention,” said Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.V.), who spent his days with students as a longtime coach. “We have an opportunity here to step up. I am absolutely, wholeheartedly in favor of moving forward with whole milk.”

Every Senator present and asking questions expressed or implied support from both sides of the aisle.

With a nod to “the milkman Sen. Marshall,” Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said he had to read through the list he had been provided of the organizations that are opposed to the bill, including the American Heart Association, American Academy of Pediatrics, and American Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. He then asked the USDA representative what health organizations are for it? Dr. Stoody said she didn’t have that information.

(Perhaps more to the point, were her continued circular answers that forced this realization: The “population-level guidelines” get drilled down to individuals in governmental feeding environments, which then feed into the health and nutrition organizations and back again. Meanwhile, individual health and nutrition practitioners are out there seeing real people as individuals every day, wondering how to get off the spinning merry-go-round.)

Chairman Boozman asked Dr. Ayoob how policymakers have gotten it so wrong in drawing a correlation between whole milk and obesity?

“Actually, the correlation is inverse,” Dr. Ayoob declared. “A review of the studies in my written testimony show that greater consumption of dairy foods, including whole fat milk, has been associated with less obesity and less cardiometabolic risk.”

He said in 2010 when whole and 2% milk were first removed from school meals, obesity prevalence was about 17%. Since that removal, it has increased. “It’s now 21%, and it’s higher, about 25%, in black and Hispanic children, the population that I work with.” 

Ranking Member Klobuchar came back to calcium, asking Dr. Ayoob to explain why it’s so important at this stage.

“We don’t have our whole lives to build our bone bank. We have the first 25-ish years,” he replied. “If they skip milk in school, that might seem like it’s no big deal for a day, maybe even for a week. But if they forgo a glass of milk every day they are in school for 12 years, we’re going to graduate kids with a diploma and not very good bones. We owe our kids better than that. Osteoporosis and osteopenia are really pediatric diseases with adult consequences.”

Sen. Marshall drove this point home in his questions for all witnesses. He talked about the milk fat as carrying key vitamins and facilitating absorption. He and Dr. Ayoob talked back and forth about how replacement beverages, like soda, take the missed opportunity with milk and add further negative impacts.

“No matter what type of milk is offered in school, none of it is nutritious until students drink it, and they don’t drink it often enough, which presents nutrition and dietary gaps, especially in low-income groups, where 77% of a child’s opportunity for milk intake is from school meals,” said Dr. Ayoob.

“Chef Byler, what’s your advice to us as we look at bringing whole milk back to schools?” asked Sen. Marshall.

“It’s been said very well by others today, that we can do better,” she replied. “If we just bring back the milk choice to schools, we would see a huge increase in consumption, a huge decrease in waste, and satisfaction for our students would be through the roof.” 

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What’s on Covington’s 5-year milk market radar?

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Pennsylvania dairy producers were treated to a forward look at Calvin Covington’s milk market radar during R&J Dairy Consulting’s annual seminar. The bottom line is cheese, cheese, and more whey. Photo by Sherry Bunting

Cheese and whey, will continue driving bus, with big growth in processing capacity on the road ahead

By Sherry Bunting, Farmshine, Feb. 7, 2025

EAST EARL, Pa. – Looking at the milk markets for 2025, Calvin Covington sees farm-level milk prices in the Northeast averaging 25 to 75 cents per hundredweight higher this year. He said milk margins, nationally, averaged $11.86 for the first 11 months of 2024, and he expects similar good margins to prevail in 2025.

The caveat? These are forecasted averages, and farmers should expect price volatility in their income and input costs, along with the mixed bag of positive, negative, and unknown impacts from the Federal Milk Marketing Order changes implemented in the second half of the year. He expects butterfat prices to remain good, but lower in 2025; whey prices will be higher, but more volatile; and protein may be lower as huge new cheese processing capacity comes online

Covington mostly shared what’s on his radar for the next 3 to 5 years during R&J Dairy Consulting’s 18th Annual Dairy Seminar, attended by more than 250 farmers at Shady Maple Smorgasbord in eastern Lancaster County, Pennsylvania on Jan. 28th.

He remarked about the number of young farmers in the crowd, and pointed out that Lancaster County is the consummate dairy county in the U.S. — with more than 1100 Grade A dairies, producing over 2 billion pounds of milk last year, which is 4.5% of total U.S. output and more milk than half of the state totals across the nation.

Consumers: more cheese, more fat, more solids

“Cheese is driving the dairy industry, and consumers are consuming more milkfat. That’s what makes stuff taste good,” he said. “Cheese is one-third fat, and that’s one reason why milkfat consumption is growing.”

He also showed how increased fat consumption is demonstrated in fluid milk sales, with “whole milk coming up.”

This trend toward consuming products with more solids is also evident in ice cream sales, which are down, but the fat content is up; and in yogurt sales, which are flat, but move “more milk in the yogurt” in the form of more solids.

Now retired, Covington, a previous National Dairy Shrine Guest of Honor and World Dairy Expo Person of the Year, spent over 50 years working for dairy farmer organizations, including as a DHIA milk tester, CEO of American Jersey Cattle Breeders Association, and CEO of Southeast Milk Inc.

He said the total solids growth in the dairy sales is expected to continue, up from 27 billion pounds total a decade ago to 31 billion pounds in 2024.

The caveat, he said, is that “exports peaked a couple years ago at 17% of total milk solids, and last year (2024) was down at 16%. Exports are a big part of your market, but they have started to level off.”

When asked about imports, Covington said “they keep going up, especially on butterfat” as the U.S. now imports almost as much milkfat as it exports.

He noted increased consumer demand for Irish butter, which is made differently than U.S. butter, with more butterfat. “I hope we start making better-tasting butter in the U.S. instead of importing it,” he shared.

Amid the demand for milk solids, Covington said “it’s amazing what you are doing with your milk components as dairy farmers.” In the Northeast, producers are averaging 4.21 fat and 3.29 protein due to genetics and “the job farmers are doing with their nutritionists and feed companies.”

Covington demonstrated with 2023 vs. 2024 comparisons that farmers are increasing the amount of products made by increasing components year over year, instead of milk production and cow numbers.

Components are the big story on the supply side, a trend he also sees continuing. He doesn’t expect dairy cow numbers nor milk output per cow to go back to the year-over-year gains seen in the past any time soon.

With a chart he showed the stark 2024 vs. 2023 data: Cow numbers are down 47,000 head; replacement heifers sell for $600 more per head; average milk output per cow is flat; but average fat pounds per cow is up 2.7% and average protein pounds per cow up 1.2%. This means that even though total U.S. milk production at an estimated 225.9 billion pounds is down 0.2% from year-earlier, total fat pounds at 9.508 billion pounds are up 2.2%, and protein pounds at 7.431 billion pounds up 0.7%.

“You’re doing it with your components,” he said. “And that’s going to continue.”

Cheese (or maybe whey) is driving the bus

Putting aside the import and export caveats, Covington demonstrated that as the overall dairy market is growing, almost all of this growth has been in the cheese market, which has become a much bigger piece of the much bigger pie.

“Cheese has been driving the dairy industry for several years, and everything points to it driving the industry going forward,” he said, showing a chart of the product mix in the year 2000 when 167.4 billion pounds of milk was produced in the U.S., sold as half cheese, and one-third fluid milk, with 15% other products. This compares with 2024, when 225.9 billion pounds of milk was produced and 58% of the sales were in cheese, 20% fluid milk, and 22% other products.

Per capita trends also show “consumers are eating more of their milk instead of drinking it,” said Covington. “We have seen tremendous change since 1986, when consumers first started consuming more of their milk as cheese than as fluid milk. Look at 2023, people consumed 405 pounds of milk (equivalent) in the form of cheese and 128 pounds in the form of fluid milk.”

While home milk delivery is rare today, Covington said it happens now in the form of pizza.

“If I drive around the city on a Friday night, I’ve got to get out of the way of the pizza delivery people. I figure, on average, it takes a little over a gallon of milk to make one average size pizza. Just think how much home delivery we have today of milk, but in the form of something else, not the milkman dropping off half gallons,” he said.

“The market is changing, and it’s going to keep on changing.”

Why is cheese growing so much? Covington pointed to things he hopes are lessons for other products: 1) Convenience, innovation in packaging and varieties, with pizza accounting for 42% of all cheese; 2) Brand identity, there’s still a lot of this in cheese, not making it a commodity to try to get to the lowest price like in other dairy products (i.e. fluid milk); and 3) taste, people love cheese.

Big bets on the future

Big bets are being made for more cheese growth, and the revenue stream of whey ‘byproduct.’

“We are in a slurry right now of a pile of money being spent on new plant construction,” said  Covington, listing the states of Kansas, Texas, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New York. 

When all of this new construction is complete over the next year or so, Covington expects the need for 30 million pounds of milk a day to fill the new plants or expansions, which he estimates represent investments of at least $5 billion and are owned by private companies or groups of farmers or individual farms that are not cooperatives.

“This kind of money and growth is not being put out there unless there is confidence in getting a return on investment with cheese and whey product growth both domestically and internationally,” he pointed out.

New cheese plant construction, when completed over the next year or so will take in more than 30 billion pounds of milk a day, and they gain a lot of additional revenue from what they do with the whey that smaller traditional cheese plants don’t have the equipment to do.

These new plants making all of this cheese will also have a lot of whey.

He explained that small plants get about $1.00/cwt for the whey cream and have the liquid whey to do something with. Some plants might dry it and get $3 per cwt for the dry whey plus the $1 for the whey cream, so that’s $4/cwt.

“Small traditional cheese plants can’t afford the equipment to do what some of these new plants are doing. These new companies not only dry the whey, they fractionate it to make whey protein concentrates. They separate out the lactose for whey protein isolates,” Covington said, rattling off a few items on the expanding list for everything from snacks and beverages, to pharmaceuticals and cosmetics, to milk replacers, to counter-top items, ‘pizza cheese,’ artificial seafood, canned hams, and more.

“It’s just amazing, and it brings in more revenue. When we think about cheese, it’s more than just the cheese, it’s also the income from the whey that’s left over,” he said, adding that the CEO of a large cheese company once told him: “Sometimes I think the cheese is the byproduct.”

With this kind of investment, the new plants are going to be making big volumes and getting income from the whey.

“This puts a crimp on the small cheese plants that can’t do this, and they’re going to have to get it out of the cheese end,” Covington observed, suggesting some potential structural change on the cheese side of the dairy industry with significant domestic and international sales growth needed to stay a step ahead.

On the positive side of the fluid milk industry, in addition to growing whole milk sales, Covington highlighted new investments. He sees a future with more dominance by grocery stores, pointing out the two new Walmart plants going into Georgia and Texas, which will be the largest in the country, processing 50 to 55 loads of raw milk a day.

Other big investments in the fluid milk sector in the Northeast are ultrafiltration and ESL packaging, such as the new fairlife plant under construction in western New York, new ESL expansion at the former Hood plant owned by Maola, and aseptic shelf-stable milk packaging at Cayuga Milk Ingredients.

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Whole milk choice for schools takes center stage

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Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act reintroduced in style!

‘Most nutritious drink known to humankind’ takes center stage at Ag Secretary confirmation hearing

This split-screen moment captures Sen. Roger Marshall, M.D. and Agriculture Secretary Nominee Brooke Rollins during their confirmation hearing exchange on bringing whole milk choice back to schools. Sen. Marshall always comes prepared with THE MILK! Livestream screen capture by Sherry Bunting

From grassroots volunteers to halls of Congress, ‘hat’s off to 97 Milk’

By Sherry Bunting, Farmshine, January. 31, 2025

WASHINGTON, D.C. – It was the high point of the four-hour confirmation hearing on Jan. 23rd for President Trump’s Ag Secretary nominee Brooke Rollins, when Senator Roger Marshall, MD (R-Kan.) poured himself a glass of whole milk in front of the television cameras, and said:

Ms. Rollins, welcome. I want to know if you agree with me that whole milk is the most nutritious drink known to humankind and belongs in our school lunches.”

He then promptly took a big swig of nature’s nutrition powerhouse that American children have been banned from consuming at school meals since 2012.

Yes, there was a ripple of good-natured laughter throughout the room at the absurdity of it all – the absurdity that this nutrition powerhouse has actually been banned for 13 years on school grounds to even be bought with one’s own money from midnight before the start of the school day to 30 minutes after the end of the school day, per the 12-years of King Vilsack that Secretary Perdue’s interruption even failed to overturn.

The new Ag Secretary nominee Rollins responded with a hand motion to her mother two rows back among the family, friends, colleagues, ag teacher, fellow former FFA state officers and current little league team she coaches in attendance for the confirmation hearing, as she replied with a hearty and all-too-knowing laugh:

“Senator, I don’t know that you have met my mom – yet. But this is all we had in our refrigerator growing up – not anything else – just whole milk. She is absolutely never going to let us forget this – the fact that this is coming up! But yes, this hits home to me very quickly,” said Rollins.

On the very same day, whole milk champion U.S. Representative Glenn ‘GT’ Thompson (R-Pa.) with prime cosponsor and pediatrician Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Wash.), along with Senator Marshall and prime cosponsoring Senators Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) and John Fetterman (D-Pa.) led the re-introduction of the bipartisan, bicameral Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act of 2025, known as H.R. 649 in the House with 90 total cosponsors to-date, and S. 222 in the Senate with 12 total cosponsors to-date.

The bill in its fifth attempt will allow unflavored and flavored whole (3.25 to 3.5% fat) and reduced-fat (2%) milk to once again be offered in school cafeterias, which are currently only permitted to have fat-free and 1% milk available for growing children, much of which is shunned or thrown away.

“Federal policy, based on flawed, outdated science has kept whole milk out of school cafeterias for more than a decade,” said Rep. Thompson in a Jan. 23rd press statement. “Milk provides 13 essential nutrients for growth and health, two key factors contributing to academic success. The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act of 2025 provides schools the flexibility they need to offer a variety of options, while supporting students and America’s hard-working dairy farmers.”

“As a pediatrician, I know how important a balanced and nutritious diet is for children’s health, well-being, and development,” added Rep. Schrier. “A healthy diet early in life leads to proper physical growth and improved academic performance and can set the foundation for lifelong healthy eating habits. Milk contains essential nutrients… This bill simply gives schools the option of providing the types of milk most kids prefer to drink.”

Sen. Marshall was blunt, saying, “(It) should never have been excluded from the National School Lunch Program. Now, 13 years after its removal, nearly 75% of children do not receive their recommended daily dairy intake. I believe in a healthier future for America, and by increasing kids’ access to whole milk in school cafeterias, we will help prevent diet-related diseases down the road, as well as encourage nutrient-rich diets for years to come.”

“Milk provides growing kids with key nutrients they need. Dairy is also an important part of Vermont’s culture and local economy, which is why our bipartisan bill to expand access to whole milk in our schools is a win for Vermont’s students and farmers,” said Sen. Welch.

Sen. McCormick said the bill “puts milk back in schools that growing kids actually want to drink. Pennsylvania’s dairy farmers supply this country (with it)… allowing schools to serve (it) in the lunchroom is just commonsense.

“Kids need it,” said Sen. Fetterman. “Let’s give them the option to enjoy whole milk again in schools – it’s good for them, they’ll actually drink it, and it supports our farmers. This bill is a simple solution that benefits everyone.”

Both National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) and International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) rushed to the forefront singing the bill’s praises and promptly issuing press releases, something that in past attempts took a little time.

As longtime milk market guru Calvin Covington noted at the R&J Dairy Consulting seminar in eastern Lancaster County Jan. 28th, kudos go to the grassroots efforts. He showed the increase in whole milk sales nationally, while other fluid milk categories have declined. This has somewhat stabilized the steep losses the entire fluid milk category has suffered most steeply in the past 14 years. 

“My hat’s off to all of you and what you have done here in Pennsylvania, throughout the state and country, in promoting whole milk. I just wish other dairy farmers would be grassroots like you are and get involved,” said Covington. “Your work has paid off. Look at this graph. In 2013, whole milk sales were a little over 14 billion pounds. Last year (2024 with 11 months of data) I’m estimating 17.5 billion pounds. Whole milk is coming up, and everything else is going down.”

Covington dug into the graph (above) further to show that in 2019, the amount of whole milk sold was 16.9 billion pounds. “But look what happened in 2020, it jumped up to 17.4 and then back down to 16.62 in 2021. That was the pandemic. People were home. Schools were closed,” he said.

“When they were home, they drank good-tasting milk, but unfortunately when the schools opened back up, they had to go back to the other stuff. But my hat’s off to what you’ve done here. We’re selling more whole milk, and one thing people forget is that 100 pounds of Class I milk sales with higher fat content — last year it averaged 2.4 in this market compared to what it was 15 years ago when it averaged less than 2% — the more fat sold in Class I milk, the more income for you as dairy farmers. Class I butterfat is worth more than butterfat in the other markets, so my hat’s off to what you’re doing.”

(Author’s Note: Yes, Covington is speaking of the good work, the hard work, of 97 Milk volunteers who formed the non-profit in 2019 after dairy farmer Nelson Troutman’s painted bales began appearing. This good work is sustained by a handful of volunteers and donations. Just think what could be accomplished with more involvement. One of those volunteers is Jackie Behr of R&J, who puts her marketing skills to work for 97 Milk. She reminded farmers that donations are needed to keep the milk education movement going. An Amish Wedding Feast fundraiser is scheduled for Feb. 8 at Solanco Fairgrounds, with sponsorships still available. The next 97 Milk meeting open to all dairy farmers is March 25 at Durlach-Mt. Airy Fire Hall near Ephrata, Pennsylvania. Check out 97milk.com to learn more about the milk education movement, and hit the donate tab to find out how you can help.)

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House Ag Chair and new Ranking Member share bipartisan priorities at Farm Show listening session

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Whole milk, new farm bill top their bipartisan to-do list

By Sherry Bunting, Farmshine, Jan. 17, 2025

HARRISBURG, Pa. – Bipartisan priorities were evident — especially on getting whole milk back in schools and completing a new farm bill — during Rep. Glenn ‘GT’ Thompson’s annual listening session on opening day of the Pennsylvania Farm Show Jan. 4th in Harrisburg.

With a thin Republican House majority, Thompson, who represents the largely rural 15th district of north central Pennsylvania, will continue as Chairman of the Ag Committee. 

He introduced the more than 100 attendees to the Ag Committee’s new top Democrat, Ranking Member Angie Craig, who represents the mostly rural 2nd district of southeast Minnesota.

They were joined by Ag Committee and Ag Appropriations Committee member, Rep. Chellie Pingree, representing the 1st district of Maine, and by Pennsylvania Secretary of Agriculture Russell Redding.

Whole milk

“We got really close to getting this done,” said Thompson about his Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act after Berks County dairy farmer Nelson Troutman with the Grassroots Pennsylvania Dairy Advisory Committee asked: What’s next for the bill in the new 2025-26 Congress?

“We have to start over, but there is a lot more support this time,” Thompson replied. He doesn’t see any obstacles on the House side after overwhelming bipartisan support in the 2023 floor vote.

He expects the bill to move quickly through the Education and Workforce Committee under its new Chairman Tim Walberg (R-Mich.), a whole milk bill cosponsor. Then Thompson will work with House leadership to get it on the calendar for a 2025 vote.

He said the Senate side also looks “very promising” as Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark), a supporter of the bill, replaces former Ag Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) who had blocked it.

Craig gave further assurance. She and the new Ag Committee Ranking Member on the Senate side, Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), are working together on this. “We do not see what we saw last time on the Democratic side to get this done for GT,” said Craig.

Both are Democrats from Minnesota who previously cosponsored the bill – Craig on the House side, Klobuchar on the Senate side.

Thompson credited the education and leadership of the Grassroots Pennsylvania Dairy Advisory Committee and 97 Milk in raising awareness and support. “The grassroots effort also helped improve the bill by suggesting language that makes sure the calories don’t count toward the fat in the school meal,” he said.

Pingree is also a big supporter of whole milk in schools. She was “amazed” to see all the Drink Whole Milk signs, banners, and painted bales while visiting her brother-in-law in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. 

“I don’t know too many states where you see something this interesting while you’re driving down the road. It’s pretty impressive. It has spread far and wide,” she noted.

Congresswoman Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) was “impressed” by the Drink Whole Milk signs along roadsides when she spent time in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. That was music to the ears of Berks County dairy farmer Nelson Troutman with the Grassroots Pennsylvania Dairy Advisory Committee. His original painted round bales in December 2018 motivated the launch of the 97 Milk education movement in February 2019. It is run by volunteers and donations at 97milk.com

ESL milk

Troutman asked if the bill could address extended shelf life (ESL) milk in schools. He is concerned about taste and acceptance by students, saying “schools should only be allowed to serve ESL milk if that’s the only option available to them.”

His concern arises from the volume of new plant capacity coming online across the country for ESL and aseptic shelf-stable milk packaging, along with new Federal Milk Marketing Order formulas that will price Class I milk differently based on shelf life. This creates potential competitive issues, especially in Pennsylvania, for bottlers of conventionally pasteurized milk that tends to be more local vying for school contracts with ESL milk coming from potentially more distant locations.

Farm-to-School

State lawmakers and young people in attendance voiced further concerns about the quality of school meals and the practice of schools shipping-in prepackaged meals prepared out-of-state, leaving Pennsylvania agriculture out of the loop. 

They requested incentives for local farm-to-school food programs. Frank Stoltzfus, a 9th generation farmer from Lancaster County pointed to the PA Beef to PA Schools program as a successful example.

These discussions come under the jurisdiction of the House Education and Workforce Committee and its “long overdue overhaul,” said Thompson: “The Childhood Nutrition Reauthorization is where we reform and refine to update school meals. I’ll be encouraging Chairman Walberg that we do that reauthorization, and this (ESL question) is something we can certainly take a look at.”

Pingree noted “some farm bill funding also goes to school meals, and we can put more into resupplying kitchens for on-site meal prep and local procurement.”

Nutrition overhaul

The last time Congress did a Childhood Nutrition Reauthorization was in 2010, when it tied school meals more strictly to the Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGAs).

“When it comes to nutrition, if kids won’t eat it, then it’s not nutritional, and we are seeing a lot of waste today,” Thompson observed.

On that score, he pointed to “good reforms” to the Dietary Guidelines process that will again be part of the markup of the farm bill to “take some of the food politics out of the process coming from the so-called ‘experts.’ We want science-based not agenda-based guidelines.”

Farm bill

Asked about a timeline for the new farm bill, Thompson was optimistic. New committees are still being populated, and new members will need some farm bill education.

“But I would love to see this farm bill go to committee markup in the first quarter of this year — that is my goal – and then see it move quickly to the floor,” he said in a Farmshine interview after the event. “We will continue to do listening sessions, but I want to move ahead. We’ve had great input from all across the country, but I do think it’s important that we keep listening and touching base.”

Both he and Craig shared concerns about nosediving grain prices and net farm income. They differed on what constitutes cuts vs. cost-control on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) that makes up the bulk of the now over $1 trillion farm bill. They both want the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds pulled into the conservation title and baseline, but they differ on removing the IRA’s climate mandates for these funds.

Thompson warned about competition from conservatives who are interested in using these funds as ‘pay-fors’ on tax policy, which he said Ag Committee Republicans would oppose. “I want these IRA funds in this farm bill,” he said.

Craig said the IRA funds best practices like carbon sequestration, and Pingree said she likes the focus on resilience for healthy soils. They pointed to carbon markets that see the value and lauded Sec. Vilsack’s use of $3 billion in CCC funds for pilot projects that will “help give us better metrics.”

While there is general agreement that most practices on farms improve the planet, the question is – how do the things farmers already do get monetized?

“They are not getting enough credit for their ecosystem services — carbon sequestration, air quality, water quality, filtration of rain. Farmers improve our environment just by farming,” said former State Senator Mike Brubaker. “Is there some way for them to get paid?”

SUSTAINS Act

Thompson said the farm bill does not address this specifically, but legislation passed in 2022 includes the SUSTAINS Act, which he described as “providing a framework for private industry to be involved.”

Corporations and foundations can donate funds to USDA for conservation purposes, like improving technical assistance for more farmers to have access to popular programs like EQIP. He cited a “great return on investment” from Chesapeake Bay Foundation initiatives as an example.

But he pushed back on the Ag Secretary’s use of CCC funds for such purposes because administrations come and go, with their own changing priorities.

“Having certainty going forward is incredibly important,” he said. “Sec. Vilsack wanted to do things by regulation and his interpretation of how CCC funds could be used. He should have come to us (Congress), instead.”

Likewise, concerns were voiced about emerging land use policies at local, county, state and federal levels.

Renewable energy

Asked for their views on traditional and alternative energy, a bipartisan preference emerged for balancing affordable and renewable sources with science, technology and innovation as “pathways for solutions.”

“We need ‘all of the above’ because energy will be a mix for a very long time,” said Pingree. “But we have to stay in this (renewable) dialog.”

Thompson said the ultimate destination of the Farm Show butter sculpture — a digester on a Pennsylvania dairy farm — is a good example of renewable energy produced from cow manure and food waste.

Craig said biofuels through E15 standards are vital for corn and soybean farmers in her district of Minnesota, with new biobased aviation fuel standards an exciting opportunity that U.S. farmers should benefit from, not imported corn from Brazil.

“Our farmers have to be at the forefront of it, we have to get this right,” said Craig. “As Ranking Member, I’ve got to manage my caucus just like GT does as Chairman, to work together for the right solutions, which are probably somewhere in the middle.”

Food security

Questions were also raised about invasive species, animal health, and safeguarding the food supply — especially in regard to inspection of border crossings for invasive pests that threaten all types of agriculture and novel cross-species migration of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI H5N1) in poultry and now dairy operations.

“We have to make sure we keep investing in our laboratories, inspections, and research,” said Thompson.

According to Redding, the Pennsylvania Diagnostic Laboratories System (PADLS) was born out of the poultry industry’s first difficult encounter with avian influenza back in the early 1980s. Today PADLS is instrumental as the state is one of the first to enter the mandatory national bulk milk testing strategy, and has established some protocols credited to the poultry industry.

He stressed the importance of cross-species engagement between Pennsylvania’s top two ag sectors of poultry and dairy, where biosecurity is essential.

“We’re at about 100% of milk representing our nearly 5000 dairy farms, and we’ve not found (H5N1) on the third cycle of testing now,” Redding reported. “The difficulty with a national strategy is finding a model that fits the diversity of all the states.”

Craig said HPAI is a big concern for her home state of Minnesota, which is No. 1 in turkey production and No. 7 in dairy.

They look forward to working with the new U.S. Secretary of Agriculture on what the national strategy looks like going forward “without overburdening the farmers.”

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Covington’s Southeast milk market outlook: Higher prices for 2025; higher-fat milk sales also put more money in milk checks

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Calvin Covington gave his dairy market outlook during the Georgia Dairy Conference in Savannah. Photo by Sherry Bunting

By Sherry Bunting, Farmshine, January 24, 2025

SAVANNAH, Ga. – Flat milk production volume, but with higher components, and a more unpredictable demand are factors new to the dairy industry that make price projections more difficult for the year ahead.

Calvin Covington has spent his life in milk marketing, now retired from managing Southeast Milk Inc., and before that working with cheese processors to see (and pay) the value of higher protein and fat when he was with the American Jersey Cattle Association earlier in his career.

Covington gave his dairy outlook for 2025, with emphasis on the Southeast markets during the Georgia Dairy Conference attended by over 400 in Savannah, Jan. 20th.

“I was way low on my projections last year. 2024 ended up with prices higher than anticipated,” he said.

This year, he is projecting prices in the Southeast markets to rise by $1.20 per hundredweight as an average for 2025 vs. 2024 in the Appalachian region ($24.12), $1.40 in Florida ($25.90) and $1.13 in the Southeast Order ($24.60). Most of the increase will come from the skim side this year because the FMMO changes, which will be implemented in the second half of 2025, will pressure butterfat value.

Covington shared his price projections for Southeast milk markets for 2025.

Producers are making higher butterfat milk, averaging well over 4.0% across the three Southeast Orders at 4.06 in Appalachian, 3.92 in Florida, and 4.11 in the Southeast. This compares with 3.65% across the three Orders in 2010.

“Additionally, consumers are also drinking higher fat milk,” said Covington, calculating the average fat percentage of Class I sales in the three Southeast Orders rose from 1.95% in 2010 to 2.4% in 2024.

Covington calculated that fat percentage in milk sales showing the change in consumer preference for higher fat milk puts more money in producer milk checks.

“In 100 pounds of Class I milk in the Appalachian Order, for example, that 2.38% fat made the milk worth more money, $1.38 per cwt more,” he said, with a chart showing Southeast producers saw a $1.28 benefit; Florida $1.35.

“There has been a big change in consumer preference, and that has raised your Class I price,” he said.

He commended dairy producers for improving their components, which has also improved their milk price.

“You’ve done this through genetics and feeding and nutrition programs, and it’s not going to stop. We are moving quickly to Holsteins making milk like Holsteins and testing like Jerseys.”

Other good news heading into 2025 is dairy product inventories are in good shape, he said. Cheese stocks are down, powder is up just a small amount, dry whey inventory is way down and butter inventory is flat.

Dairy product demand is up, but Covington sees a bit of a challenge looking at demand on a total solids basis because “we are exporting more cheese and less powder.”

Looking ahead, he gave attendees a lot to think about on the changing structure and markets in the dairy industry.

Covington observed that 10% (140) of the 1408 dairy farms that were counted in the 2022 Census of Agriculture in the Southeast had 64% of the region’s milk sales.

Of that 140, there were 22 farms with 2500 cows or more, producing 32% of the region’s milk.

“This is happening all over the country,” said Covington. “We are getting more concentrated.”

This year the milk production advantage flipped back to Florida by slightly more than Georgia, but the two states together have reached 50% of Southeast milk sales. Covington thinks by 2030, “we will see 60% of the milk produced in the Southeast coming from Georgia and Florida.”

When asked what has led to Georgia’s rapid increase in production over the past few years, Covington said “Georgia dairy farmers want to expand and they have the ability to expand. They are progressively making more milk per cow and have the land mass and support.”

His “demand and supply” summary for the Southeast region shows 1160 dairy farms at the end of 2024, producing 8 billion pounds of milk with 32 regulated milk plants. The region had 8.3 billion pounds of Class I fluid milk disposition, and 0.9 billion pounds of Class II products processed.

Against those numbers, the amount of packaged fluid milk products sold in the Southeast was 10 billion pounds. “The Southeast is still a deficit area, and there is room for growth,” he said.

As for total U.S. milk production, Covington doesn’t see it rebounding any time soon. Cow numbers are moving lower and milk per cow is simply not making the year over year gains seen in the past.

“Milk production has been pretty constant for the last three years,” he said. “We have to go way back to see where that has happened before.”

But he also wanted producers to think differently about production, to realize that in making more components, their milk is generating more products. He calculates that today’s hundredweights of milk, nationwide, yield a half pound more cheese. That adds up.

“You as dairy farmers are doing this. By getting your components up, you are also improving sustainability over time. You are making more products from the same volume of milk,” Covington explained.

“Based on average component level changes, if a plant is making one million pounds of cheese a day, they now need 177 loads instead of 185 loads a day for that same output,” he said.

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Good news may trump bad nutrition policies

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Editorial Analysis: Tumultuous 2024 spills over into 2025 – Part One

By Sherry Bunting, Farmshine, January 3, 2025

EAST EARL, Pa. – Year 2024 was tumultuous, and 2025 is shaping up to be equally, if not more so. Spilling over from 2024 into 2025 are these three areas of potential for good news to trump bad nutrition policies that are having negative impacts on dairy farmers and consumers.

Farm bill and whole milk bill

Both the farm bill and the whole milk bill showed promise at the start of 2024. No one championed the two pieces of legislation more than House Ag Committee Chairman Glenn ‘GT’ Thompson (R-15th-Pa.). He even found a way to tie them together — on the House side.

The Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act made it farther than it ever has in the four legislative sessions in which Thompson introduced it over the past 8 to 10 years. It reached the U.S. House floor for the first time! But even the overwhelming bipartisan House vote to approve it 330 to 99 at the end of 2023 was not enough to seal the deal in 2024.

That’s because over in the U.S. Senate, then Ag Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) blocked it from consideration — despite over half her committee signing on as cosponsors.

GT Thompson, found a workaround to include it in the House farm bill, which passed his Ag Committee on a bipartisan vote in May. The language was also part of the Senate Republicans’ draft farm bill under Ranking Member John Boozman (R-Ark.)

It too fell victim to Stabenow dragging her feet in the Senate. By the time the Ag Chairwoman released a full-text version of the Senate Democrats’ farm bill, little more than 30 days remained in the 2023-24 legislative session.

Key sticking points were the House focus on dollars for the farm side of the five-year package. It put the extra USDA-approved Thrifty Food Plan funding into the overall baseline for SNAP dollars and brought Inflation Reduction Act climate-smart funds under the farm bill umbrella while removing the methane mandates to allow states and regions to prioritize other conservation goals, like the popular and oversubscribed EQIP program.

Attempts to broker a farm bill deal failed, and on Dec. 20, another one-year extension of the current 2018 farm bill was passed in the continuing resolution that keeps the government funded into the first part of 2025, without amendments for things like whole milk in schools. However, Congress did manage to provide $110 billion of disaster relief for 2022-24 hurricanes, wildfires, and other events. Of this, roughly $25 billion will go to affected farmers and ranchers, plus another $10 billion in economic disaster relief for agriculture.

Looking ahead, there is good news for the farm bill and whole milk bill in the new 2025-26 legislative session. The House Ag Committee will continue under Rep. GT Thompson’s leadership as Chairman. On the Senate side, whole milk friendly Boozman will chair the Ag Committee. With Stabenow retiring, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) will serve as Ranking Member, and she previously signed on as a Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act cosponsor in March 2024.

The whole milk bill will have to start over again in the Education and Workforce Committee with another vote on the House floor. It was enthusiastically supported by prior Education Committee Chairwoman Virginia Foxx (R-5th-N.C.). Her years of chairing this committee have expired, but the good news is Rep. Tim Walberg (R-5th-Mich.) will step in, and he was an early cosponsor of the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in the 2021-22 and 2023-24 legislative sessions.

New Dietary Guidelines

The 2025-30 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC) submitted its ‘Scientific Report’ to the outgoing USDA and HHS Secretaries on Dec. 19, 2024 — just 40 days before they head out the door to be replaced by incoming Trump appointees.

The Report is the guidance of the so-called ‘expert committee’ that reviews evidence and makes recommendations for the Secretaries of USDA and HHS to formalize into the 2025-30 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGAs). This process occurs every five years.

The DGAs are used in all USDA feeding programs, including school lunch, childhood daycare, and eldercare institutional feeding, as well as military mess halls. They also inform food offerings in many other controlled settings. 

The bad news is the Report has gone from being increasingly pro-plants over the past nine cycles to being outright anti-animal in this 10th cycle.

The good news is that dairy keeps its special spot on the so-called ‘My Plate.’ The bad news is that despite acknowledging evidence about the benefits of milkfat in nutrient dense milk and dairy foods, the DGAC rated the evidence as ‘limited’ – largely because USDA screened much of it out of the review process.

In the section on under-consumed nutrients of public health concern, especially for children and elders, the DGAC noted that whole and 2% milk were top sources of three of the four: Vit. D, calcium and potassium. Even this was not enough to persuade them to loosen the anti-fat grip that governs milk in schools, daycares and eldercare.

The DGAC states in its Report that their ‘limited access’ to research showing positive relationships between higher fat dairy and health outcomes was “too limited to change the Guidelines.”

They even doubled-down on the beverage category by recommending against flavor-sweetened fat-free and low-fat milk and that water be pushed as the primary beverage. 

In the Report, the DGAC also doubled-down on saturated fat with recommendations to “reduce butter, processed and unprocessed red meat, and dairy for replacement with a wide range of plant-based food sources, including plant-based protein foods, whole grains, vegetables, vegetable (seed) oils and spreads.”

This opens the door for more non-dairy substitutes beyond soy-milk, which is already allowed in the dairy category. In fact, the Report looks ahead to future cycles changing the name of the dairy category to broaden what qualifies as makers of new dairy alternatives improve their nutrition profiles via ultra-processing. At the same time, the DGAC punted the ball on the question they were given about “ultraprocessed” foods and beverages, stating they didn’t have access to enough evidence on health outcomes to answer that question. (The next HHS Secretary might have something to say about that.)

Other animal-based foods such as meat and eggs took a big hit this cycle. The 2025-30 Report uses stronger methods for discouraging consumption. They recommend moving peas, beans and lentils out of the vegetable category and into the protein category and listing them FIRST, followed by nuts and seeds, followed by seafood, then eggs, and lastly meat.

Once again ‘red meat’ is mentioned throughout the report as being lumped in with ‘processed meat’ even though not one stitch of research about negative health relationships with processed meats included any unprocessed red meat in the studies! Clearly, consumption of whole, healthy foods from cattle is in the crosshairs. This 10th edition of the Scientific Report just continues the trend. 

As in past cycles, a whole core of research on the neutral to beneficial relationships between consumption of saturated fat in high-protein, nutrient-dense foods was screened out of the DGAC’s review process by current Ag Secretary Vilsack’s USDA.

This Report essentially sets the stage for ultra-processed plant-based and bioengineered alternative proteins to play a larger role in the institutional meal preps of American schools, daycares, eldercare, and military.

But here’s the good news! The DGAC was late in finishing its 2025-30 Scientific Report!

The law requires a 60-day public comment period before USDA and HHS formulate the actual Guidelines for 2025-30. This mandatory comment period ends Feb. 10, 2025. Comments can be made at the Federal Register link at https://www.regulations.gov/document/HHS-OASH-2024-0017-0001

By the time the comment period ends, Vilsack and company will have left town. Let’s hope Senators confirm Trump appointees before the public comment period ends on Feb. 10 so their eyes are on this before the bureaucracy finishes the job.

This is a golden opportunity for the dairy and livestock sectors, along with health and nutrition professionals and health-conscious citizens to weigh-in. (Look for ways to participate in a future Farmshine.)

Meanwhile, commenters can remind the incoming Secretaries of how flawed the DGA process has become; how Americans, especially children, have become increasingly obese with increasing rates of chronic illness and underconsumption of key fat-soluble nutrients during the decades of the DGA’s increasingly restrictive anti-fat, anti-animal dogma.

Commenters should point out the fact that the Committee was not provided with all of the evidence on saturated fat. This is a message that is likely to land well with USDA Secretary designate Brooke Rollins and HHS Secretary designate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In fact, RFK Jr. is on record opposing the low-fat dictates and has said nutrition will be among his first priorities, if he is confirmed by the Senate for the HHS post.

FDA’s final rule on ‘healthy’ labeling

In the mad rush at the end of 2024, the FDA released its final rule about using the term “healthy” on the label of foods and beverages.

This process was outlined in the White House National Strategy on Hunger, Nutrition and Health. FDA’s preliminary ‘healthy’ labeling rule was released on Sept. 28, 2022, on the first day of the first White House Nutrition Conference since the 1980s.

At that Conference, Ag Secretary Vilsack said: “The National Strategy’s approach is a whole of government approach that involves the entire federal family.” And President Biden said: “We have to give families a tool to keep them healthy. People need to know what they should be eating, and the FDA is using its authority around healthy labeling so you know what to eat.”

In short, the FDA’s role here is to restrict healthy label claims to foods and beverages that meet its criteria and allow them to also use a new FDA ‘healthy’ symbol that is still under development.

“Nutrient-dense foods that are encouraged by the Dietary Guidelines – vegetables, fruits, whole grains, fat-free and low-fat dairy, lean game meat, seafood, eggs, beans, peas, lentils, nuts, and seeds – with no added ingredients except for water, automatically qualify for the ‘healthy’ claim because of their nutrient profile and positive contribution to an overall healthy diet,” the FDA final rule states.

No surprise that whole milk (3.25% fat) will not qualify, nor will real full fat cheeses, yogurts, and other dairy foods that are not fat-free or low-fat (1%). Natural, unprocessed beef, pork and poultry are off the ‘healthy’ list too.

Specifically, the FDA’s final rule states: “To meet the updated criteria for the ‘healthy’ claim, a food product must: 1) contain a certain amount of food from at least one of the food groups or subgroups (such as fruit, vegetables, grains, fat-free and low-fat dairy and protein foods) as recommended by the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, and 2) meet specific limits for added sugars, saturated fat, and sodium. 

The fat and sodium criteria are a double-whammy against most real dairy cheeses. A single 1-oz slice of American, Swiss, or Cheddar won’t make the cut on saturated fat or sodium; even part-skim Mozzarella is slightly over the limit. Furthermore, low-fat, high-protein cottage cheese barely makes the cut on saturated fat, but far exceeds the new limit on sodium. Likewise, a typical yogurt cup only qualifies if it is low-fat or non-fat, and fruited yogurts must steer clear of added sugars.

Dairy can’t win in this labeling scheme unless products are made with virtually no saturated fat and far less sodium. To sell flavorless cardboard and chalk water that fails to deliver key fat-soluble nutrients, products will undergo more ultra-processing, and Americans will consume more artificial sweeteners.

Under dairy products, FDA’s final rule for ‘healthy’ label claims states: 1) Must contain a minimum of 2/3 cup food group equivalent of dairy, which includes soy; and 2) Each serving must have under 2.5 g of added sugar, under 230 mg sodium, and under 2 g saturated fat.

This means even a serving size of exactly 2/3 cup (6 oz) of 2% milk might barely squeak by, and a full cup (8 oz) of 1% or fat-free milk would be – you guessed it – ‘healthy’. Flavoring the fat-free and low-fat milk will not qualify, except by using artificial sweeteners to stay within added sugar limits.

Under protein foods, the FDA is even more restrictive. The only protein foods listed in the ‘healthy’ labeling final rule are: game meat, seafood, eggs, beans, peas, lentils, seeds, nuts, and soy products. Furthermore, these options must meet the criteria of less than 1 g added sugars, less than 230 mg sodium and less than 1 to 2 g saturated fat.

But here’s the good news! This FDA final rule (21 CFR Part 101, RIN 0910-AI13) falls under the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). It’s not likely to sit well with HHS Secretary designate RFK Jr. The rule becomes effective Feb. 25, 2025. The compliance date is three years later, so there is hope of requesting HHS initiate a new rulemaking process under new HHS leadership.

Bottom line is all three of these bad nutrition policies impact consumer health and dairy farm economic health and are rooted in the flawed Dietary Guidelines process.

There is good news on that front in Congress as well. House Ag Committee Chairman GT Thompson included DGA reform and oversight in the farm bill that had passed his Committee in the 2023-24 legislative session. It is critical that this issue be part of the new farm bill that moves forward in the 2025-26 legislative session.

Part II in a future Farmshine will look at the tumultuous 2024 dairy markets and margins spilling over into 2025.

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Awareness, appreciation, and praise don’t pay the bills

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97 Milk is a 501(c)3 non-profit. Donations are tax deductible.

By Sherry Bunting, Farmshine, November 22, 2024

EPHRATA, Pa. – Farmshine readers are no-doubt aware of the work of the volunteers operating the 97 MILK education efforts. But awareness and thank you’s don’t pay the bills.

First of all, 97 MILK is a 501c3 non profit, meaning donations are tax deductible.

Secondly, 97 MILK is managed and operated by volunteers. Not a single person doing any of this great work is paid a dime or a nickel (not even a penny) for their time and only in some cases are personal expenses for projects reimbursed

97 MILK has made huge strides on literally a shoestring budget. 

However, even the frugal cannot survive without donations because printers have to be paid for printing materials like the popular and eye-opening 6×6 cards.

Website hosts and programmers have to be paid to keep the platform up and running.

When whole milk isn’t donated for an event, it has to be purchased.

When dieticians or other experts are interviewed for a Q&A at the website or on social media platforms, they expect their expert time to be paid.

Boosting the best and most informative ad posts on facebook also comes at a cost. 

The list goes on, and it doesn’t even cover the things 97 MILK wants to do that are expensive, like BILLBOARDS.

There’s a reason Nelson Troutman started this movement by painting a wrapped round bale, or BALEBOARD — because the billboards were too expensive, but wouldn’t it be nice to amplify the good work of 97 MILK with a few larger than life billboards?

These are tangible costs that surround the small but strong and dedicated army of 97 MILK volunteers.

When it comes to the content created, the daily social media posts, the educational printed materials, the interactions with followers to answer their questions on social media, the constant monitoring of social media conversations, along with the answering of emailed questions at the website question desk, the compiling of new information for the website designer to keep it refreshed, the staffing of booths at consumer-facing events, the painting of bales, the miles driven, time spent talking to consumers, time spent designing eye catching ads to show consumers, time spent actually communicating with consumers – that is all done by volunteers who take time away from their paid livelihoods to voluntarily promote whole milk education, often not even being reimbursed their personal costs for supplies.

We are in the season of Thanksgiving. A great way to show some gratitude to the hardworking 97 MILK volunteers is to help keep the boat afloat with a donation. Apart from a few regular givers, donations have not come into this volunteer effort for a long time, and the shoestring is baring thread, despite the important advances this educational effort has made for dairy farmers and the many agribusinesses that serve and depend on them.

A recent Dairy Foods Magazine website panel discussed the State of the Dairy Industry in 2024. One panelist observed that their monitoring data show a 30% increase in social media conversations about milk and dairy products. We can chalk some of that gain up to 97 MILK, posting six days a week and reaching hundreds of thousands of consumers every quarter, with many reacting and having conversations with 97 MILK volunteers — engaging directly.

The website, alone, is averaging 200 users per day, most of them new users. That’s a big number.

Total page views at 97milk.com were 11,000 over the past 30 days – another big number.

Facebook reached tens of thousands of people last week, without any paid ads, but reaches tens of thousands more with boosting. Of these numbers, the nationwide reach is broad. Nope, they don’t all come from Pennsylvania. The places with the highest views register as California and Texas, along with states all in between East to West and North to South.

Of the website interactions, the No. 1 draw is the Milk Facts section. Visitors to the website spend an average of 2 minutes and 40 seconds there. In today’s fast-paced digital world, that’s a long visit! 

97 MILK is doing things right.

And guess what? Have you read the Oct. 16, 2024 Farmshine story about fluid milk trends? Do you read Market Moos keeping you up to date on the monthly estimated packaged fluid milk report by USDA?

Fluid milk sales are UP year-to-date over year ago, and have been trending this way since partway through last year. In fact, the long-term fluid milk sales downturn was slowed and flattened ever since 97 MILK was formed in February 2019. But in the past 18 months, it’s turning slightly higher. There is momentum now — enough that industry trade organizations and other farm publications are beginning to take notice.

This is spurred by the big increases in whole milk sales as one of the main categories turning the trend around when looking at the volume, not just the percentage of increase on a smaller volume category. Whole milk sales are up 21% since 2019 when 97 MILK was formed.

Consumers want to eat and drink more healthfully. They want to know about milk!

97 MILK has caught their attention, piqued their curiosity to learn more, and helped reveal the details about the nutrition in a glass of whole milk. Not to mention, the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act that passed the House of Representatives 330 to 99 last December got this far because of one thing: Whole Milk Education.

Whole milk bill champion, Representative G.T. Thompson, Chair of the House Ag Committee, said it best during a 97 MILK meeting attended by farmers in 2021, and he’s repeated similar statements at other meetings and panels where the subject of whole milk in schools comes up: 

“Keep doing what you are doing with the well-designed combination of influencing, marketing and providing factual information. Keep up the education. It’s working,” said G.T.

I personally want to thank each and every person who has donated funds and / or donated their time to help keep this whole milk education movement going. Thank you 97 MILK for all you’ve done for America’s dairy farmers and consumers – and above all for America’s children!

So, what are you waiting for? Want 97 MILK to continue and do more? If so, go to https://www.97milk.com/donate/ and prove it, or mail your donation to 97 MILK, PO Box 87, Bird In Hand, PA 17505.

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What’s the future for fluid milk?

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Fluid milk sales are up, Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act is moving. Meanwhile industry globalists put big bets on ESL, shelf-stable, with favor from Vilsack  

By Sherry Bunting, Farmshine, October 18, 2024

EAST EARL, Pa. — Protein is all the rage right now, and consumers are turning back to real milk as they realize its natural high quality protein benefits. Year-to-date fluid milk sales continue to outpace year ago, and that’s good news. Here are some key factors in the future of fluid milk in the U.S.

Fluid milk sales up!

July’s total packaged fluid milk sales more than recovered the June slump — in a big way, and August looks promising too.

USDA estimated packaged fluid milk sales at 3.4 billion pounds in July, up 4.3% year-on-year (YOY). This amplifies the pivotal year-to-date trend above year ago for the first time in decades (except the 2020 pandemic year).

Specifically, USDA’s Estimated Fluid Milk Product Sales Report for July, released in late September, noted conventional fluid milk sales total 3.7% higher YOY, with organic up 11.7%.

Conventional unflavored whole milk sales were up 4.7% YOY in July, while organic whole milk sales were up 17.1%.

Flavored whole milk sales were mixed because these sales rely upon what processors are willing to make and offer on store shelves, not necessarily reflecting what consumers want to buy. When fewer packages of whole flavored milk are offered, the full potential of sales are restrained.

Year-to-date (YTD) sales of all fluid milk products for the first seven months of 2024, at 24.7 billion pounds, are up 0.7% YOY, adjusted for Leap Year. Of this, YTD conventional whole milk sales for the first seven months of 2024, at 8.8 billion pounds, are up 2.1% and organic whole milk sales at 914 million pounds are up 12.6%.

The August report to be released in the coming weeks is shaping up similarly. August Class I utilization pounds reported last week by USDA are up 1.1% YOY and 1.1% YTD (Jan-Aug).

Making more fat, importing it too?

Meanwhile, the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released Oct. 9 reduced its milk price forecasts for the rest of 2024 and into 2025, expecting Class III prices to fall from September highs as cheese price declines are expected to more than offset the higher whey prices.

This report is looking at all the major new cheese capacity coming online in the next 12 months, which is expected to saturate the cheese market to drive prices lower so that U.S. cheese makers can be globally competitive and continue exporting record amounts of cheese.

But is the milk available to do this? Likely not without robbing from Classes I, II and IV channels. Still, the WASDE forecasts lower Class IV prices also due to the abruptly declining butter price being only partially offset by the higher nonfat dry milk prices.

In short, dairy farms are making higher-fat milk, and the food industry is importing more milkfat, especially in the form of whole milk powder. WMP imports have been up by a record amount YOY in each of the past four years, especially 2024.

Restoring whole milk choice for kids!

Now would be a particularly good time for whole milk choice to be restored in our nation’s schools since we apparently have too much milkfat and not enough skim. Given this scenario, how can anyone in this industry still believe the whole milk in schools would hurt the industry’s ability to make enough butter and cheese. 

Unless it is excess butter and cheese that is needed to push prices down in order to continue beating record exports at reduced prices paid to farmers. 

Getting whole milk choice into schools would help. IDFA has been touting the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act. NMPF says they are on board too. This means the industry is united, right?

What are the chances that GT Thompson’s bill to bring whole milk choice back to schools will finally make it all the way to the President’s desk?

For starters, it passed the House by an overwhelming bipartisan majority last December. The Senate bill, S. 1957, has 11 Republicans, one Independent and five Democrats signed on, including notable Democrats such as Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Peter Welch of Vermont, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania who chairs the Senate Ag Subcommittee on Nutrition. 

The main sponsor is Republican Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas, a doctor. States represented are Pennsylvania, Vermont, Wisconsin, Idaho, New York, Iowa, Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, Maine, and Mississippi.

In fact, Pennsylvania now has both Senators signed on. Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) is late to the party, but he has finally signed on as a cosponsor of S. 1957 on Sept. 19. It’s nice to see both senatorial milk jugs filled on the map for the Keystone State, but the bill needs more cosigners to fend off the blockade by Senate Ag chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.).

GT has included the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in the House Ag Committee-passed farm bill. Word from Washington over the past few weeks is that a new farm bill is expected to get done after the elections in the lame duck session, and that GT will fight to keep the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in the bill. Let’s hope so.

USDA: two movers for Class I?

Also related to Class I fluid milk sales, the dairy industry awaits a final decision on USDA’s proposed changes to federal milk pricing formulas, which includes a surprise for fluid milk: splitting the baby and adding a fifth class of milk in the form of two Class I mover announcements each month. 

The hearing record is woefully inadequate. No proposal. No evidence. No testimony. No analysis. No parameters. No definition. Even USDA’s own static analysis shows these two movers would be as much as $1 or more apart in any given month.

Fresh, conventionally processed (HTST) milk would go back to being priced by the the higher of the Class III or IV advance pricing factors to determine the Class I skim milk base price portion of the mover. 

However, milk used to make extended shelf life (ESL) fluid milk products, defined only as “good for 60 days or more,” would continue to be priced using the average of these two pricing factors, plus-or-minus a rolling adjuster of the difference between the higher-of and average-of for 24 months, with a 12-month lag.

With two movers, fluid milk costs could be different for plants in the same location based on shelf life, with no clear definition for the new class, nor parameters established to qualify. Could we see label changes to move between movers?

Processors will know the rolling adjuster 12 months in advance, due to the “lag.” They will know the two advance-priced calculations (higher-of and average-of) a month in advance. They will have it charted in an algorithm no doubt and make decisions accordingly.

Farmers, on the other hand, will find out how their milk was used and priced two weeks after all their milk for the month was shipped. Those milk checks will be even less transparent than they are now.

Big bets on ESL, shelf stable

The dairy checkoff has openly identified ESL, especially shelf stable aseptically packaged milk, as its “new milk beverage platform,” using dairy farmer funds to research and promote it and to study and show how consumers can be “taught” to accept it.

The whole deal is driven by the net-zero sustainability targets. So, follow the money.

Dr. Michael Dykes of IDFA, at the Georgia Dairy Conference in January 2024, told dairy producers that “this is the direction we (processors) are moving… to get to some economies of scale and bring margin back to the business.”

He said the planned new fluid milk processing capacity investments are largely ultra-filtered, aseptic, and ESL — 10 of the 11 new fluid plants on the IDFA map he displayed are ESL. Some will also make ultrafiltered milk, and some will make plant-based beverages also.

Meanwhile, the linchpin of regional dairy systems is conventionally pasteurized (HTST) fluid milk, prized as the freshest, least processed, most regionally local food at the supermarket.

To be sure, this two-mover proposal fits the climate and export goals set forth by the current Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack when he was working as the highest paid dairy checkoff executive in between the Obama and Biden administrations. 

The pathway to rapidly consolidate the dairy industry to meet those goals is to tilt the table against fresh fluid milk, something he already put a big dent in when removing whole milk from schools.

They decided thou shalt drink low-fat milk and like it. Apparently, they are equally convinced about ESL / shelf stable milk as the way of the future and will continue using mandatory farmer checkoff funds to figure out how to get consumers to like that too.

Just this week, the food writer for The Atlantic did a piece on shelf-stable milk, calling it “a miracle of food science” and lamenting in her Op-Ed that it’s a product “Americans just can’t learn to love.”

Author Ellen Cushing took jabs at America’s preference for fresh natural milk from a global perspective, without a thought for the local dairy farms and regional food systems that are tied to fresh milk. She states that by worldwide standards, other countries have gone shelf-stable milk, which she describes as “one of the world’s most consumed, most convenient and least wasteful types of dairy.”

Processors are making big bets on consumer conversion to ESL and shelf-stable.  There are cards to play in every hand. TO BE CONTINUED!

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